Dear HWA Growers,
The June 2020 Position Report was released Friday July 10th. The overall tone of the report was optimistic considering the challenges the industry faced over the last few months.
The 2019 year-to-date crop receipts are now 2.547 billion pounds. This is an increase of 12.29% over this time last year. Next month will give us our total crop size and final carryout for the 2019 season. The carryout is the most important part of that equation and will give the industry their total supply for 2020.
Total shipments for the month were 175.37 million pounds. This is an increase of 6.2% over last year but fell just short of the record set in June 2017 by 1.68 million pounds. Export shipments were 116.86 million pounds, which is up 8.2% from last year. Domestic shipments came in at 58.50 million pounds, up 2.4% from last June. The industry is expected to have another healthy shipping month in July and final carryout is estimated to be around 450 million pounds. If shipments fall off next month and carryout ends up being larger than expected, we could see some downward pressure on the market price.
The 2019 crop is now 91% sold, compared to a 93% sold position at this time last year. Based on the 3 billion pound crop estimate and a carryout of 450 million pounds the 2020 crop is roughly 15% sold. Movement in the market has been healthy for the last few weeks and should continue since all the recent industry reports and estimates have been in line with expectations. Prices are expected to remain flat in the immediate future, but as sales continue and demand grows, we should start to see gradual increases.
If you have any questions, please feel free to reach out to your Grower Representatives.