Almond Brief: August 2025 Position Report – Market Update & Key Insights

In this Almond Brief podcast episode, hosts Chase Higen Bothotham and Kevin Souza from Harris Woolf Almonds unpack the August 2025 Almond Position Report, revealing encouraging market signals, shifting expectations for the upcoming crop, and early signs of balance returning to the almond industry.

Lower Carryout Signals a Healthier Almond Market

One of the most notable updates from the August report is the revised carryout number of 483 million pounds, which came in lower than expected. This figure represents a more balanced transition between the 2024 and 2025 crop years.

Industry analysts view this as a positive indicator for price stability and overall market health. Earlier concerns of oversupply have softened, and the lower carryout suggests that global demand and domestic shipments have helped tighten inventories.

2025 Almond Crop Estimate Revised Downward

While the Objective Estimate initially projected a massive 3 billion-pound crop, real-world feedback from processors and growers tells a different story. Across California’s almond-growing regions, reports suggest a smaller-than-expected crop, with most in the industry now estimating closer to 2.8 billion pounds or less.

This shift reflects ongoing challenges like weather variability, irrigation issues, and yield differences between varieties. The consensus among both buyers and growers is that the original 3-billion-pound forecast overshot reality, and a smaller crop could help support prices through the fall.

Almond Shipments Slow in August but Expected to Rebound

The August shipment data reflected a brief pause in momentum. Shipments dipped from July levels, largely because handlers focused on clearing out remaining 2024 crop inventory rather than pushing new sales.

However, analysts note this slowdown is temporary and seasonal, as the industry transitions between crop years. With new-crop availability increasing in September, buyers are expected to re-enter the market to replenish stocks for the post-holiday period.

In-Shell Almond Market Faces Pressure but Poised for Recovery

The in-shell almond market remains challenging. Similar to prior months, prices for brown-skin almonds continue to trade at a discount rather than a premium, partly due to excess inventory in key import markets like India.

Still, there are signs of improvement ahead:

• Post-holiday buying typically strengthens demand heading into late Q4.

• India’s inventory drawdown may open opportunities for renewed imports.

• Price stabilization in kernel markets could lift in-shell sentiment.

Growers are advised to stay flexible, monitor price movements, and evaluate returns for cracking versus storage as market dynamics evolve.

Outlook: Gradual Improvement and Market Rebalancing

The August 2025 Position Report highlights a market that is correcting itself after months of uncertainty. With:

• A lower-than-expected carryout at 483 million pounds,

• A more realistic crop forecast around 2.8 billion pounds, and

• Signs of buyer re-engagement in the coming months, the almond industry appears to be moving toward better supply-demand balance.

While the in-shell segment continues to lag, the overall outlook is cautiously optimistic. If current trends hold, the fall marketing season could bring renewed confidence and stronger pricing leading into 2026.