Almond Brief: December 2025 Almond Position Report – Global Market Update

The December 2025 Almond Position Report brings long-awaited clarity to the global almond market. In this episode of The Almond Brief Podcast by Harris Woolf Almonds, the team breaks down finalized crop numbers, shipment trends, export demand, and what it all means heading into the 2026 bloom.

After months of speculation, the market now has confirmation: the 2025 California almond crop came in at 2.7 billion pounds. With the crop size settled, confidence is returning — and liquidity across the market remains strong.

Final 2025 Almond Crop Size Confirmed at 2.7 Billion Pounds

The biggest takeaway from the December report is certainty. The total 2025 crop is officially confirmed at 2.7 billion pounds, aligning closely with early-season expectations.

While harvest processing moved slower than usual, final receipts validated what many in the industry anticipated after field observations pointed toward a lighter crop than initial objective estimates suggested.

Now that the number is finalized, buyers and sellers can move forward with clearer visibility — a key factor in restoring confidence and supporting stable pricing in the California almond market.

Domestic Almond Shipments Reach a “New Normal”

One of the ongoing themes in the almond industry is shifting domestic demand.

Monthly domestic shipments have plateaued at approximately 50 million pounds, a level that appears to represent a new baseline for U.S. consumption patterns. While this is lower than historical peaks, it has become a consistent and predictable figure.

Rather than signaling weakness, this normalization reflects changing buying habits and more disciplined inventory management among domestic customers.

Strong Export Demand Offsets Slower U.S. Sales

The bright spot in the December Position Report is the continued strength of global almond exports.

Demand from North Africa and Europe has remained solid, helping offset slower domestic activity. Export markets continue to play a critical role in balancing supply and demand across the industry.

This global engagement reinforces California’s position as the leading supplier of premium almonds worldwide and demonstrates the importance of diversified market channels.

When export shipments remain consistent, overall market fundamentals stay intact — even during periods of domestic softness.

Market Liquidity and Buyer Confidence Improving

With the 2.7 billion-pound crop size confirmed, market liquidity has improved noticeably.

Earlier in the season, uncertainty around crop size created hesitation. Now that the number is finalized:

• Buyers are more comfortable covering forward needs

• Sellers have clearer supply visibility

• Pricing conversations are more stable and predictable

Confidence on both sides of the market has strengthened, contributing to a healthier trading environment.

Almond Market Outlook: Balanced Supply Heading Into 2026 Bloom

Looking ahead, industry experts expect steady monthly shipments to continue supporting balance in the global almond market.

If exports remain consistent and domestic demand holds at current levels, supply and demand should stay aligned as the industry prepares for the 2026 bloom season.

With a confirmed crop size, manageable inventory levels, and steady international movement, the almond market enters the new year without major red flags.

December 2025 Almond Market Takeaways

Here are the key highlights from this month’s report:

• Final 2025 crop confirmed at 2.7 billion pounds

• Domestic shipments stabilizing around 50 million pounds monthly

• Strong export demand from North Africa and Europe

• Improved market liquidity and buyer confidence

• Balanced outlook heading into the 2026 bloom

Overall, the December Position Report delivers a message of stability. While growth may not be explosive, the fundamentals are solid — and that consistency provides a strong foundation for the year ahead.