Almond Brief: July Position Report 2025 – Key Takeaways

The July 2025 Position Report brings both closure to the 2024 almond crop year and early insight into the 2025 harvest. In this Almond Brief recap, we highlight the most important numbers, sales trends, and market dynamics from Episode 7 of the Almond Brief Podcast by Harris Woolf Almonds. The report points to positive momentum in the almond market, with strong shipments, improving sales, and cautious optimism heading into the new crop year.

2024 Almond Crop Year Wrap-Up and Carryout Levels

The 2024 crop year closed with 2.71 billion pounds in receipts, a figure that has held steady over recent months.

• Carryout Estimate: 514 million pounds, lower than earlier projections of 550–575 million.

• Projected Sub-500 Carryout: After factoring in losses and exemptions, the final number is expected to dip just under 500 million pounds.

• Industry Ideal: A carryout in the 500-million-pound range is considered healthy—large enough to bridge the gap to the new crop but far from the burdensome 800-million-pound carryouts seen in prior years.

This balance provides a stronger foundation for the industry as it transitions into the 2025 crop.

Strong Shipments and Sales Drive Market Momentum

The July Position Report brought encouraging news on both shipments and sales.

• Total Shipments: 197 million pounds, well above industry expectations of 160–170 million.

  • Exports: 147 million pounds

  • Domestic: 50 million pounds

• Second-Best July on Record: While just shy of the preferred 200 million, it still marks a historic performance.

• Sales: 273 million pounds, split between 173 million from the 2025 crop and 100 million from the 2024 crop.

A key driver of this rebound has been price corrections following the Objective Estimate’s 3-billion-pound forecast. Initially, the market slowed with prices dropping, but as buyers returned, sales surged and prices began to climb again.

The takeaway: demand is still present, and momentum is building heading into the new crop year.

In-Shell Almond Market Faces Challenges

Unlike kernels, the in-shell market has struggled to find strength:

• No Premium, Now a Discount: Brown-skin almonds that once commanded a premium are currently trading at a discount.

• Early Divali Impact: With Divali earlier this year, buyers sourced exclusively from the 2024 crop, leaving the market quieter in July.

• India’s Stockpile: India has taken in heavy shipments over the last few months, slowing replenishment needs.

• August Premium Missing Again: For the second year in a row, August has not delivered the usual premium for in-shell almonds.

Grower Recommendations: For certain varieties like Independence, cracking out to kernels or storing product short-term may offer better returns.

Early Insights Into the 2025 Almond Crop

The 2025 harvest is just beginning to move through the system. While it’s still too early for certainty, a few early themes are emerging:

• Harvest Underway: First product began arriving in late July, with hullers set to ramp up soon.

• Rumors of Lower Yields: Some processors report field receipts on par with or slightly below last year.

• Turnouts Potentially Down: Especially on nonpareil varieties.

• Skepticism on 3 Billion Estimate: Buyers remain doubtful, with many assuming the crop will land closer to 2.8–2.85 billion pounds.

Outlook: Positive Momentum and Price Recovery

After a string of challenging months, July brought a boost of optimism. Strong shipments and sales paired with rebounding prices suggest the market is stabilizing. While questions remain around the 2025 crop size, sentiment is shifting positively:

• Prices are rising as sales strengthen

• Carryout is at a manageable level

• Momentum is building into the new crop year

The hope now is that this trend continues, helping the industry recover from the pricing pressure brought on by the Objective Estimate.