Almond Brief: October 2025 Almond Position Report – Market Analysis & Outlook

In this episode of The Almond Brief Podcast, hosts Chase Higen Bothotham and Kevin Souza from Harris Woolf Almonds dive into the October 2025 Almond Position Report, breaking down shipment trends, crop expectations, and the evolving state of the global almond market.

The discussion highlights a market that remains firm and balanced, even as overall sales lag behind historical averages — thanks largely to strong export demand and shifting buyer habits that now favor short-term purchasing.

Almond Crop 2025: Smaller Than Expected, But Market Remains Stable

Industry experts continue to revise down expectations for the 2025 almond crop, with most now estimating it to be well below the 3 billion-pound forecast. Current field reports suggest the crop will likely settle closer to 2.7–2.8 billion pounds, reinforcing earlier signs of a lighter yield across California.

Despite this smaller output, the almond market remains steady, indicating that supply and demand are finding equilibrium. The combination of manageable carryout, consistent shipments, and resilient global buying activity is helping maintain confidence among growers and processors.

Almond Shipments and Sales: Behind on Paper, Balanced in Practice

The October Position Report shows that while total almond shipments and sales remain historically behind, market fundamentals are strong.

• Shipments: Export volumes continue to offset slower domestic demand, with international buyers showing consistent purchasing patterns.

• Sales: Many buyers are operating on shorter timelines, focusing on immediate-term coverage instead of long-term contracts. This change reflects broader trends in global trade uncertainty and inventory management.

Even with slower overall movement, the almond market continues to perform well, with stable prices and no significant signs of market fatigue.

Global Almond Exports Driving Market Confidence

Export demand continues to be the backbone of the California almond market. Key destinations across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia have helped absorb supply and maintain shipment flow.

While domestic sales remain muted, the strength of the export market has kept prices firm and prevented the type of seasonal downturns often seen when new crop volumes hit the market.

“Exports have carried us through the slow months. Despite being behind in overall sales, the market is holding firm — and that’s a very positive signal.”

For more data on export markets, visit the Global Almond Industry Updates section of our website.

Buyer Behavior: Short-Term Focus Reflects a Shifting Market

One emerging trend highlighted in this episode is how buyer behavior has shifted. Instead of forward-contracting large volumes early in the season, many buyers are now purchasing closer to need, often month-to-month.

This approach has slowed reported sales numbers but reflects an intentional strategy by buyers to stay flexible amid fluctuating currency rates, freight costs, and global demand cycles.

While this “just-in-time” style of buying creates some short-term uncertainty, it has not yet caused instability — a testament to the market’s current strength.

October 2025 Market Outlook: Positive with No Red Flags

Both hosts agree the October Position Report is encouraging overall. Despite lagging sales data, the market is stable, prices are holding, and no major red flags suggest an impending downturn.

“It’s a good report — nothing alarming, nothing negative. The fundamentals are healthy, and we’re in a better spot than many expected a few months ago.”

As the industry moves toward the end of 2025, the key focus will be on maintaining this balance: continuing to move product globally while preparing for the next crop year with clearer insight into acreage and yield patterns.