Almond Market Briefing – June 2025 Position Report & Objective Estimate

Executive Summary: The State of the Almond Market in 2025

The California almond industry is entering a period of volatility following the June 2025 Position Report and the newly released Objective Estimate. With a higher-than-expected crop forecast, prices have dropped sharply, leaving both buyers and sellers in a holding pattern. Sales need to pick up quickly before the 2025 harvest arrives in full force.

This blog recaps the key developments shaping the market, providing insights into price trends, shipments, and the path forward as harvest begins.

Objective Estimate Shocks the Almond Market

The 2025 Objective Estimate (OE) surprised the industry at 3 billion pounds, far above the 2.6 to 2.8 billion pounds many expected. Most growers had anticipated around 2.7 billion pounds.

The reaction was swift: prices dipped 30 to 40 cents per pound almost immediately. However, many growers and processors remain skeptical of the number, pointing to lighter crops in the field—especially for nonpareil varieties—and larger kernel sizes than the report suggests.

Almond Prices Dip as Sales Stall

Following the OE release, market activity slowed. Very few sales have been completed, signaling a lack of liquidity while buyers and sellers wait for stability. Current price levels are now being set for the 2025 crop, and the industry may need to wait until December or January for clearer data on crop size.

Despite the decline, today’s almond prices remain above where they stood at the same time last year, providing some perspective for growers.

June 2025 Position Report: Shipments and Sales Trends

The June Position Report reinforced the trend of slowing shipments:

• Total shipments: 186.7 million pounds

  • 135.4 million exported

  • 51.4 million domestic

• Year-to-date receipts: 2.71 billion pounds

• Estimated carry-out: Around 550 million pounds

While these numbers align with expectations, they were overshadowed by the impact of the Objective Estimate.

Buyers and Sellers Face Pressure to Recalibrate

Sales for the upcoming crop are significantly behind pace. California growers need to sell, but buyers are also underbought, especially as holiday and Christmas demand approaches. This creates a double-sided urgency for both sides to act.

Industry experts expect demand to pick up as buyers move to cover seasonal needs and get product on the water in time for end-of-year shipments.

Almond Harvest 2025: Activity Picking Up Soon

Harvest has already begun in southern California, with early orchard shaking underway. In about 10 days, activity is expected to accelerate across the state, leading to a busy period for haulers and processors.

Conclusion: Market Recalibration Ahead

The almond market is facing a critical juncture. The unexpectedly high 3 billion-pound crop estimate has disrupted pricing and slowed sales, but buyers cannot delay purchases much longer. While shipments remain sluggish, the approaching harvest and holiday demand will likely push activity forward.

For growers and buyers alike, the next few months will be decisive in balancing supply and demand. Prices are down but still healthier than last year, offering cautious optimism as the industry prepares for the 2025 crop year.