Almond Market Overview: Insights from February 2025 Podcast Episode

Introduction to the Almond Market Status

In our latest podcast episode, we dive deep into the current state of the almond market as of the second week of February 2025. We uncover several critical aspects that stakeholders in the industry should be aware of, including supply and demand dynamics, shipment trends, and the crucial carry out levels as we transition between crop years.

Almond Supply and Receipts Analysis

Current Supply Levels and Projections

As of February 2025, the almond industry has seen receipts totaling 2.66 billion pounds, which is slightly below the anticipated target of 2.8 billion pounds. However, there is an expectation that an additional 90 million pounds will be received shortly, potentially bringing the total supply to around 2.75 billion pounds. After accounting for lost and exempt product, estimated at 50 million pounds, the usable supply stands at approximately 2.7 billion pounds.

Importance of Achieving Supply Targets

Reaching these supply targets is crucial as it impacts the industry’s ability to meet ongoing demand effectively. With the current figures being about 100 million pounds less than the objective, industry stakeholders are closely monitoring these developments.

Understanding the Importance of Carry Out in Almond Supply

Role of Carry Out in Meeting Consumer Demand

Carry out—the inventory of almonds carried over from one crop year to the next—is essential for ensuring a consistent supply to consumers, especially during critical months like August and September. Justin Morehead, a key industry expert, emphasizes, “We want to have a consistent supply year-round for our consumers, and to do that, we’ve really got to be able to bridge each crop year effectively.”

Impact of Carry Out on Market Prices

Historically, with monthly shipments averaging between 213-228 million pounds, a minimum carry out of 450 million pounds is necessary to cover the demand in August and September. This balance also influences market pricing dynamics, where higher carry out levels tend to soften prices, while decreasing levels strengthen them.

Almond Shipment Trends and Market Dynamics

Review of Current Shipment Volumes

In the first half of the crop year, almond shipments have been strong, totaling 1.37 billion pounds. With historical data indicating that the second half of the year might be even stronger, the industry remains optimistic about continuing this trend.

Consumption Patterns and Inventory Strategies

The current market scenario reveals that buyers are operating with minimal inventory, adopting a “hand to mouth” approach. This strategy underscores the need for sustained strong shipments to meet ongoing consumer demand.

Market Equilibrium and Outlook

Achieving a Balanced Almond Market

The overall market sentiment is positive, suggesting that the almond market is nearing a healthy equilibrium where both buyers and sellers are actively engaging at current price levels. This balance is crucial for the ongoing stability and growth of the almond industry.

Conclusion: Stabilizing Trends in the Almond Market

The almond market in early 2025 shows promising signs of stabilization, with supply levels nearing targets and robust shipment trends indicating strong demand. While the carry out level continues to play a pivotal role in market dynamics, the industry is well-positioned for a balanced and healthy market going forward, barring any significant external disruptions.