March 2025 Almond Market Update: Key Insights from Harris Woolf Almonds

Welcome to the Almond Brief, your trusted source for up-to-date insights on global almond market trends. Hosted by the team at Harris Woolf Almonds, this podcast is designed for growers, buyers, and industry stakeholders who need clear, concise, and timely updates. In this episode, Chase Higenbotham and Kevin Souza break down the latest almond position report, shipment trends, and market-moving factors.

Crop Receipts Surpass 2.7 Billion Pounds—But What’s the Market Impact?

As of March 2025, the almond industry has received over 2.7 billion pounds from the 2024 crop. While this is a key milestone, Kevin Souza emphasizes that the market has already priced this in:

“That 2.7 number, give or take a little bit, is what was expected. It’s already been factored in.”

Receipts will continue to trickle in, but they are no longer a meaningful driver of market sentiment heading into the rest of the year.

March Almond Shipments Hold Strong at 221 Million Pounds

March brought in total shipments of 221 million pounds—right in line with industry expectations and up from 214 million pounds the previous month. New sales came in at 217 million pounds, a slight dip from February but still healthy.

“We’re hovering in that sweet spot of 220–225 million pounds. That’s what we need to move the 2.7 billion-pound crop and keep carry-out levels reasonable.”

At this pace, the industry remains on track for a manageable carry-out between 400 and 450 million pounds, which could help support pricing as supply tightens.

Domestic Almond Shipments Lag—Will Buyers Step In?

One standout detail in the March position report: domestic shipments came in low at just 51 million pounds, one of the lowest levels in five years. Souza points to buyer behavior as a key factor:

“A lot of buyers are covering only their immediate needs. They were worried the crop would be 2.8 or 2.9 billion pounds and that prices would drop.”

Now that the crop size is confirmed at 2.7 billion pounds and 75% of it is already sold, confidence may return. Many buyers may soon step in to cover their long-term needs—even at slightly higher prices.

Export Market Strength Offsets Domestic Slowdown

Despite weaker domestic numbers, the export market continues to perform well and has helped balance overall shipments. As buyers abroad remain active, this steady pace is contributing to a relatively stable market outlook.

Almond Market Sentiment: Neutral to Slightly Bullish

The latest numbers suggest a neutral-to-slightly bullish tone moving forward. While the March report itself doesn’t suggest a sharp move in either direction, the fundamentals—strong shipments, steady demand, and a manageable carry-out—are keeping the market on solid footing.

“Buyers are still uncovered on the back end, and California still has to sell. The fundamentals really haven’t changed.”

Almond Industry Eyes Tariff Developments

Potential U.S. tariffs remain a wild card in the market. While headlines create uncertainty, the impact has been limited so far:

“We’ve still seen consistent buying and steady price increases. That could change on a dime, but as of now, tariffs haven’t materially affected the market.”

Harris Woolf Almonds will continue monitoring this evolving situation.

Upcoming Factor: Terra Nova’s 2025 Almond Crop Estimate

All eyes are on the upcoming Terra Nova industry estimate—the first benchmark forecast for the 2025 almond crop. Souza notes its potential to influence sentiment:

“Perception drives the market more than actual size. This estimate is the first domino to fall.”

Whether the number comes in high, low, or in line with expectations, it’s likely to shape pricing and purchasing behavior in the months ahead.

Final Thoughts: Stability with Watchful Optimism

The March position report confirms a steady and balanced almond market. With consistent sales, manageable inventory, and a defined crop size, the fundamentals remain supportive. While domestic demand lags, export strength and continued buyer activity are keeping the momentum going.

As always, external variables like tariffs and crop forecasts could shift the landscape—but for now, slow and steady appears to be winning the race.