Almond Brief Podcast: May USDA Estimate, April Position Report, and Market Momentum

Welcome to the Almond Brief—your go-to podcast for global almond market insights, brought to you by the team at Harris Woolf Almonds. Whether you’re a grower or a buyer, our mission is to deliver critical updates and trends clearly, concisely, and quickly.

🎙️ This Week’s Hosts: Chase Higenbotham & Kevin Souza

Chase Higenbotham welcomes back Kevin Souza, Head of Sales at Harris Woolf Almonds, fresh from a major industry event in Europe. Despite some jet lag, Kevin shares the latest data and his take on what it means for growers and buyers alike.

🌱 USDA Subjective Estimate: 2.8 Billion Pounds for 2025 Crop

The big headline this week is the USDA’s May Subjective Estimate—forecasting the 2025 almond crop at 2.8 billion pounds. Here’s how it’s landing in the industry:

• Slightly above expectations, but still within the range predicted by independent estimates (2.66B to 2.8B).

• Neutral market reaction—the number is high but not disruptive.

• A figure under 2.65B would’ve likely pushed prices up; over 2.85B could’ve driven them down.

• Most growers were anticipating something closer to 2.6–2.7B.

This number will guide the industry until the objective estimate in July. For now, the outlook remains steady.

💰 Pricing & Market Sentiment: A Buyer-Seller Standoff

While in Europe, Kevin noted a clear pricing debate:

• Buyers are pushing for a 20-cent discount on new crop pricing.

• Handlers in California insist on parity—or even a slight premium—over current prices.

No consensus yet, but as harvest approaches, price discovery will become clearer.

📦 April Position Report: Crop Receipts and Market Takeaways

Total Crop Receipts

• April receipts totaled 8 million pounds.

• Final 2024 crop stands at 2.71 billion pounds.

• This data point is minor now—most impactful movement will come from shipments and sales.

🚢 Shipments and Sales: Almonds Keep Moving

April Shipments

• 241 million pounds shipped—well above expectations (220–230M).

• Indicates strong demand and helps drive down the carryout.

April Sales

• 192 million pounds sold, making it the second-highest April sales total in 5 years.

• Though slightly lower than some recent months, it outperformed expectations for a typically soft month.

Key Impact

• Carryout remains on track to stay under 500 million pounds.

• Strong export demand is offsetting weak domestic numbers (domestic shipments down another 17%).

📉 Domestic Market Trends: Two-Month Dip

Domestic shipments have been trending lower for two months in a row:

• March and April both showed declines.

• Industry observers are monitoring closely, but exports are keeping momentum alive.

📊 Looking Ahead: 2025 Crop Set Up for Strength

Even with a 2.8B pound crop and a projected 450M carryout, fundamentals are aligning:

• Buyers are still active.

• Inventory is tightening.

• Sentiment is improving after years of tough pricing and heavy carryouts.

If current pace holds, the industry is positioned for a smooth transition from the 2024 crop into 2025, with pricing support and supply-demand balance returning.

🌟 Grower Appreciation Event: June 19 at Harris Ranch

Harris Woolf Almonds will host a Grower Appreciation Luncheon on June 19th at Harris Ranch.

• Open to our growers, industry partners, and prospective mutual growers.

• Invitations are going out—hope to see you there!