Almond Brief: April 2026 Almond Position Report & USDA Subjective Estimate

The April 2026 Almond Position Report marks an important turning point for the California almond industry. In this episode of The Almond Brief Podcast by Harris Woolf Almonds, the discussion centers on the latest shipment activity, the USDA subjective estimate, and what current trends reveal about supply, demand, and pricing heading into the next crop cycle.

After months of uncertainty surrounding production forecasts, the market appears to be settling into a more balanced position — one that supports both buyers and sellers as confidence returns across the industry.

USDA Subjective Estimate Brings More Clarity to the Almond Market

One of the biggest topics in the April update is the release of the USDA subjective estimate, which provides the industry with a clearer outlook on expected almond production.

In recent months, market activity slowed as stakeholders waited for updated forecasts to replace discontinued government reporting methods. Without clear production guidance, many buyers hesitated to commit to larger purchases.

Now, with the 2024 crop estimate confirmed at 2.7 billion pounds, uncertainty has eased considerably.

This estimate aligns closely with industry expectations and reinforces the idea that the almond market has found a healthier balance between supply and demand.

California Almond Industry Finds Stability at 2.7 Billion Pounds

According to industry experts, the 2.7 billion-pound crop size represents a workable middle ground for the market.

Why this matters:

• Buyers gain confidence in available supply
• Sellers avoid excessive inventory pressure
• Pricing remains more stable and predictable
• Carryout levels stay manageable

Rather than creating fear of oversupply or shortage, the finalized estimate has helped normalize market sentiment heading into the new season.

Almond Sales Slowed Temporarily Ahead of Market Forecasts

The April report noted a short-term slowdown in market sales leading up to the release of official estimates.

This pause was largely driven by buyers waiting for more certainty before making purchasing decisions. Once the market received clearer production guidance, confidence began returning.

This pattern reflects a broader shift toward more cautious buying strategies across the almond industry, where purchasers increasingly prioritize flexibility and short-term positioning.

Almond Shipments and Demand Remain Steady

Despite temporary hesitation in sales activity, almond shipments continue to show steady demand.

Export markets remain active, and domestic movement has stayed consistent enough to support firm pricing. Industry analysts expect this stability to continue as the market transitions into more traditional seasonal buying patterns.

Strong demand for California almonds continues to reinforce confidence across the supply chain.

New Crop Inshell Almond Demand Supports Firm Prices

One of the more encouraging developments discussed in the report is the strength of new crop inshell almond demand.

Interest in inshell varieties has remained healthy, helping support price firmness even as the industry works through ongoing market adjustments.

This demand is especially important because inshell movement often plays a key role in setting early-season momentum for the broader almond market.

Almond Market Outlook for 2026 Remains Positive

The overall tone of the April Position Report is optimistic.

Key market indicators point toward:

• Balanced supply and demand
• Stable shipment activity
• Improving buyer confidence
• Firming almond prices
• A return to more traditional seasonal patterns

While challenges still exist, the industry appears to be entering a more stable phase compared to the uncertainty seen earlier in the crop cycle.

April 2026 Almond Market Takeaways

Here are the key highlights from this month’s report:

• USDA subjective estimate confirms a 2.7 billion-pound crop
• Market confidence improves as uncertainty declines
• Shipments remain steady despite slower short-term sales
• New crop inshell demand supports pricing
• Industry outlook remains positive heading into the next season

Overall, the April Position Report suggests the California almond industry is operating from a much stronger and more balanced position than many anticipated just months ago.

Stay informed on California almond industry updates, crop estimates, and export demand shaping the year ahead.