December 2024 Position Report
The December position report was released on January 9th, providing some more insight into the market dynamics that are driving the supply and demand of the 2024 crop.
2024 Crop Receipts
The crop receipts seemed to be everyone’s area of interest prior to the report’s release. Most of the hullers around the state finished processing in December, this tends to make the trend lines much clearer when it comes to estimating the final crop size. Receipts totaled 234 million pounds this month, making it the second smallest December of the last five years. Year-to-date crop receipts now total 2.576 billion pounds. This is a 15.6% increase when compared to total receipts through this time last year. When looking at prior year delivery trends, this year’s crop seems to align closest with 2022 when it comes to the timing of harvest and lower than average yields per acre. If these trends continue, the industry is looking at a total 2024 crop size of 2.75 billion pounds.
2024 Crop Quality
This season’s weighted inedible average now sits at 3.06%. The vast majority of the 2024 crop has been graded by the USDA. Based on the amount that will get inspected throughout the rest of the season, we don’t expect this number to change much in either direction. While quality certainly wasn’t perfect this year, it was a welcome improvement over last year’s 4.23% inedible. We are optimistic that quality will continue to improve next season. We are seeing more winter sanitation in orchards around the state this year than we have seen in the last couple of years.
Shipments
Total shipments for the month were 233.1 million pounds, this is an increase of 1.6% compared to last year. Export shipments came to 177.0 million pounds, which is up 2.5% from last year. Domestic shipments landed at 56.1 million pounds, down 1.1% from last year. Year-to-date shipments now total 1.145 billion pounds. This is right in line with last year’s shipments through December.
Sales
New sales for the month were 182.5 million pounds compared to 219.4 million pounds sold at this time last year. The industry’s overall sold position is 52.5% compared to a sold position of 55.7% last year. While California continues to trail slightly behind last season’s sold percentage, we remain optimistic that the industry will be able to catch up and keep the carryout at a manageable level. Buyers aren’t sitting on large inventories and will need to continue purchasing product to meet their needs.
Market Summary
Overall, this report ended up being fairly neutral. The crop receipts are expected to fall short of the 2.8 billion pound objective estimate, but not by a huge amount. Monthly shipments were good and keep us on pace with last year’s year-to-date totals. The monthly sales were okay and remain slightly behind last year. All these factors point towards prices remaining relatively stable over the coming weeks. The stability in the market should continue to help move sales and shipments along at a steady rate.
By the time next month’s report is released, we will start to see some early indications of what the 2025 bloom looks like. The 2025 crop will likely be the topic of discussion going forward and its perceived size will start having an impact on the market. The Harris Woolf team will continue to monitor the market conditions daily.
January Pool Payment
Harris Woolf is sending out our January pool payment next week on Wednesday the 15th. The payment will be based on the following YTD levels.
- Organic, all Varieties- $1.45/lb
- Nonpareil/ Sonora- $1.35/lb
- Independence- $1.25/lb
- Carmel/ Monterey/ Wood Colony/ Folsom/ Supareil/ Shasta- $1.15/ lb
- California/ Mission- $1.15/lb
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