Feb. 2021 Position Report

Total shipments for the month were 234.21 million pounds, this is an increase of 16.1% when compared to last year’s 201.78 million pounds and set a new record in all categories for February. Export shipments were 163.97 million pounds, which is up 19.3% from last year. Domestic shipments came in at 70.23 million pounds, up 9.1% from last February. The logistics issues at the ports continue to cause problems for the industry, but shippers were able forge ahead with exports coming in above expectation. The domestic side had a nice rebound as well, this puts us back on track to keep chipping away at the substantial carryout estimates hanging over our head.

New sales for the month were 189 million pounds, this is just slightly under last February’s sales total of 192 million pounds. This brings the total 2020 crop sold percentage (including carry-in) to 74.5% based on a 3.1-billion-pound crop. The industry remains 1.5% ahead of last February’s sold position of 73%. The remaining unsold 2020 supply is roughly 900 million pounds.

Now that we are toward the tail end of bloom, the unofficial 2021 crop estimates have started circulating around the industry. Estimates seem to be hovering around the 2.8 billion pound mark, with a carryout estimate of 700 million pounds the perception is that we will end up with a 2021 total supply very similar to this year.

The market has been relatively quiet following yesterday’s report, but the early feedback is that pricing should remain flat with a chance of a few cent increase. We will see where things land next week once sales start taking place.