Almond Brief: January 2026 Almond Position Report – Market Update & Bloom Outlook

The January Almond Position Report marks an important shift in focus for the California almond industry. With the 2024 crop size now firmly established at 2.7 billion pounds, the conversation has moved away from crop speculation and toward shipment performance, new sales activity, and early bloom season expectations.

In this episode of The Almond Brief Podcast by Harris Woolf Almonds, industry experts break down what the latest data reveals about global demand, buyer behavior, and what to expect as the 2026 bloom approaches.

2024 Almond Crop Size Stabilizes at 2.7 Billion Pounds

After months of adjustments and analysis, the 2024 California almond crop has officially stabilized at approximately 2.7 billion pounds.

With crop uncertainty largely behind us, the market can now operate with greater clarity. The focus has shifted toward:

• Monthly shipment performance

• Export and domestic sales trends

• Overall supply and demand balance

Certainty around total supply allows both buyers and sellers to evaluate positioning more confidently as the marketing year progresses.

January Almond Shipments Fall Short of Expectations

The January Position Report showed that both export and domestic shipments came in slightly below initial expectations.

While this slower movement raised some questions, it did not signal a breakdown in demand. Instead, the softer shipment numbers reflect continued cautious purchasing patterns among buyers.

Domestic consumption remains steady but measured, and export markets are still active — just not at the accelerated pace some anticipated earlier in the season.

Surge in New Almond Sales Strengthens Market Position

Despite lighter shipments, one of the most encouraging data points in the January report was a significant increase in new sales.

That surge helped:

• Offset the shipment shortfall

• Improve the industry’s sold position

• Reinforce buyer confidence in current price levels

This activity suggests that while product may not be moving immediately, buyers are continuing to secure coverage — an important signal for maintaining market stability.

Buyer Behavior: “Hand-to-Mouth” Purchasing Continues

A key theme in the January update is the ongoing trend of hand-to-mouth buying.

Instead of locking in large forward contracts, many buyers are purchasing closer to immediate need. This strategy reflects broader global uncertainty around freight, currency fluctuations, and inventory management.

While this approach can suppress near-term shipment numbers, it often leads to:

• More frequent re-entry into the market

• Incremental buying waves

• Potentially stronger shipping figures in the coming months

If buyers continue covering needs gradually, shipment totals may accelerate later in the quarter.

Almond Market Outlook: Bloom Season and Weather Risk

As the industry moves into the 2026 bloom season, attention naturally shifts toward weather patterns and their impact on the next crop cycle.

Bloom conditions are inherently unpredictable. Temperature swings, rainfall timing, and pollination success will all influence early market sentiment.

Historically, bloom season can:

• Introduce pricing volatility

• Shift buyer urgency

• Impact early new-crop contract discussions

At this stage, there are no immediate red flags, but weather developments over the coming weeks will play a meaningful role in shaping the 2026 market outlook.

January 2026 Almond Market Takeaways

Here are the key highlights from the January Position Report:

• 2024 crop firmly stabilized at 2.7 billion pounds

• Shipments slightly below expectations

• Strong new sales activity improving the sold position

• Continued hand-to-mouth buyer behavior

• Market attention turning toward 2026 bloom conditions

Overall, the January report reflects a market that remains balanced, disciplined, and responsive to evolving global conditions.