July 2024 Position Report

The July Position Report was released August 9th and gives us the final delivery & shipping numbers for the 2023 crop year. This report showcases all the hard work over the last twelve months that went into moving product and bringing the carryout back down to a manageable level. Over the last couple of years, these July reports have been about record high carryout numbers and the uphill battle we have in front of us going into the new crop year. It feels good to finally have some momentum on our side while starting a season with supply and demand in better balance.

The final year-to-date crop receipts total 2.446 billion pounds, which is 4.86% below the 2.571 billion pounds of total receipts last season. The final piece of the puzzle for the 2023 crop year will come next month when the carryout is adjusted based on the percentage of “loss and exempt” pounds. The unadjusted carryout currently sits at 505 million pounds. I estimate that the final carryout will be somewhere between 465 and 485 million pounds, after the adjustment is applied.

Total shipments for the month were 179.4 million pounds. This is a decrease of 3.9% when compared to last year’s 186.7 million pounds. Export shipments came to 126.3 million pounds, which is down 2.9% from last year. Domestic shipments landed at 53.1 million pounds. This is down 6.1% versus last season’s 56.5 million pounds. Total shipments for the year landed at 2.7 billion pounds. This is 5.0% higher than the 2.6 billion pounds shipped in 2022.

New sales for the month were 69.9 million pounds compared to 108.6 million pounds sold at this time last year. Buyers will likely point out the lower sales and shipping numbers in an attempt to drive pricing down. The reality is that many handlers are starting to run out of available inventory to sell this late in the season.

Over the last 6-8 months Harris Woolf has been holding regional lunch & learn meetings in addition to our larger grower appreciation luncheon in May. During these meetings we discussed the market with our growers and shared our thoughts on where we thought the final crop size and total shipments would land. As we followed the trends throughout the season we have been forecasting a 2.4-2.5 billion pound crop, total shipments of 2.7 billion pounds, and a carryout around 500 million pounds. Now that we are at the end of the year, it looks like we were spot on with these numbers. We plan to continue holding these meetings after we get through harvest. We will be sure to send out future dates and locations as they become available.

As this report gets digested over the next week, kernel prices are expected to remain stable. As for inshell, we are continuing to see downward pressure as India works through their supply of 2023 product. There is little buying demand currently and inshell prices are currently below kernel prices. Our advice for growers looking to make inshell is to let your product sit in the stockyard until India works through their supply and the inshell premiums return. If a grower is prioritizing selling their crop early, then cracking everything out may be the way to go. Hopefully things turn around in the coming weeks before these hard decisions need to be made.