July 2025 Position Report

Domestic shipments were down 5.6% at 50.15 million pounds, and down 7.79% on the year. Export shipments picked up the slack with 147 million pounds, an increase of 16.4% over July of 2024. Overall, the industry finished down 1.69% on the year. This leaves the industry with a carry out of 514.87 million pounds before being adjusted for “Loss & Exempt” product.

Sales

Total sales for the month of July did not disappoint with a total number of 273 million pounds sold. 2025 crop sales came in at 173 million pounds, and 100 million pounds of 2024 crop sales. This is a notable rebound in forward sales and puts the 2025 crop at 284.8 million pounds sold. Of the 284.8 million pounds of 2025 crop sales, export sales make up 213.4 million pounds and domestic at 71.4 million pounds.

Market Summary 

If you back up a month ago, we saw a dip in the market leading into the June shipping report and objective estimate. Then came the shocking 3 billion pound number. Although the number was off by 200 to 300 million pounds of both grower and buyer expectation, it was the number that was given and the number the industry had to work with, which ultimately drove the market down further. Once the dust settled and the shock wore off, we did see the market spring back to life. The price decrease following the estimate turned out to be an overcorrection and the market bottomed out. Once buyers realized the market was at the bottom, and it wasn’t going to drop any further,  they returned to the market to cover their needs out of the remaining 2024 crop, and further coverage into the 2025 crop. The confidence from global buyers and the participation by California jumpstarted the market and that ultimately led to prices rising back up. This robust demand was reflected in the sales number of 273 million pounds. Going forward we will still see that demand in the market, which has been keeping pricing firm.

This is true in every market except for India and inshell, where demand is low and prices are depressed. The Diwali holiday falls early again this year, causing India to cover its needs with 2024 crop, and ultimately causing very little demand on the 2025 crop right now. Additionally, India has plenty of inventory due to the big shipments they received in the last three months, along with another 46 million pounds shipped this month. As of now there is not a premium to kernels, and we don’t anticipate it coming back in the short term.

It is typical this time of year to see handlers and growers slow down on new sales as we are in the thick of harvest and want to see what is going to be coming in. This is okay in the short term, but in order to keep the firming prices California will need to continue to participate in sales of the 2025 crop. If California decides to wait too long, we could fall behind in shipments and commitments, ultimately leading to another decline in price.

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