June 2024 Position Report
July 16, 2024
Last week brought the almond industry a few more reports as we prepare for harvest to start in a few weeks. The NASS Objective Estimate was released on July 10th and the updated 2024 crop forecast now sits at 2.8 billion pounds. The estimate was positive for California growers, as this reduced the perceived total crop from the previous estimate of 3.0 billion pounds. This was followed by the June position report on July 11th. Once again, this report reflected all the continued work that went into selling and shipping the 2023 crop and getting the carryout down to a manageable level.
The year-to-date 2023 crop receipts now total 2.45 billion pounds, which is 4.8% below the 2.57 billion pounds received to date last season. We aren’t expecting any significant changes to the 2023 crop receipts with only one month left to report.
2024 Crop Estimates
Bountiful Ag – 2.88 billion pounds
Terra Nova Trading- 2.97 billion pounds
Wonderful- 2.94 billion pounds
USDA Subjective- 3.00 billion pounds
USDA Objective- 2.80 billion pounds
Total shipments for the month were 206.2 million pounds. This is an increase of 10.5% when compared to last year’s 186.6 million pounds. Export shipments came to 144.1 million pounds, which is up 14.6% from last year. Domestic shipments landed at 62.0 million pounds. This is up 1.9% versus last season’s 60.9 million pounds. The industry has managed to keep total shipments over 200k per month throughout the year. YTD shipments are currently 5.7% ahead of last year, we should close out the 2023 crop year with total shipments around 2.7 billion pounds.
New sales for the month were 92.4 million pounds compared to 154.7 million pounds sold at this time last year. This month’s drop in sales is partly due to availability starting to dry up in certain categories, the other factor was that some buyers were waiting to see the results of the latest crop estimate before resuming their purchases.
Overall, these reports were very positive for the California almond industry. The carryout is projected to be back to a manageable level. The 2024 crop forecast is down to 2.8 billion pounds and buyers still have demand going forward.
Since the release of these reports, we have seen a decent jump in almond prices. Buyers are still testing the waters at these new rates; they are currently buying 1-2 loads at a time until they feel the market has stabilized. This is still a good sign; in the past we have seen buyers completely pull off the market following similar price increases. If sales and shipments return to the rates we saw in 2023, prices should continue to gradually rise over time. This should give the industry a decent tailwind heading into the 2024 season.
