June 2025 Position Report
This week brought us the much anticipated 2025 Objective Estimate, along with the June Position Report. These reports were delivered on Thursday, July 10th and both delivered some fairly disappointing news. The objective estimate landed at 3.0 billion pounds, which was well above any industry forecasts released this year. The June position report reflected the slower market activity we have experienced for the last couple of months.
2024 Crop Receipts
Crop receipts continue to trickle in as we near the end of the 2024 crop year. Year-to-date deliveries now total 2.71 billion pounds.
Shipments
Total shipments for the month were 186.7 million pounds. This is down 9.4% from last June’s 206.2 million pounds. Export shipments came in at 135.4 million pounds, down 6.1% from last year. Domestic shipments came in at 51.4 million pounds, down 17.2% from last season. Overall, the YTD shipments are now 2.5% behind last year’s total through the month of June. With only one month left in the 2024 crop year, it’s looking like the estimated carryout is going to land somewhere around 550 million pounds after it’s adjusted for “loss & exempt” product.
Sales
Total sales for the month of June were 142.6 million pounds. There were 96.8 million pounds of new crop sold and 45.8 million pounds sold from 2025 crop. This is down from the 190.5 million pounds sold in June of 2024 (92.5MM old crop & 98.1MM new crop). The industry sold percentage is now 87.4%, down from the 89.4% sold at this time last year. When looking at the new crop sales we are much further behind. 111.5 million pounds of new crop has been sold in 2025, compared to 271.3 million pounds of new crop sold by this time in 2024. Once the dust settles following the objective estimate we should see some movement resume on the sales side.
Objective Estimate
To get to the 3.0 billion pounds estimate, NASS sampled 1,892 trees from 946 orchards throughout the state in 2025. Based on the number of nuts per tree and the size and weight of the kernels they came to an estimated average yield of 2,160 pounds per acre. A few of the interesting data points from the report were that the Nonpareil yields are expected to be 9% higher than last year and that the average kernel size is expected to be smaller than 2024. This doesn’t exactly align with what we are seeing in orchards around the state, but I guess only time and actual deliveries will tell. Whether it’s right or wrong, this is now the number that the industry will work with for the next few months.
Market Summary
If there are any positives to come from this week’s news cycle, it’s that we now have an objective number to work with. It’s far from the number that anyone on the growing and processing side wanted, but at least the waiting game is over. Buyers and sellers can return to the table to try and get some deals done. Based on the estimate and the position report we are expecting to see some more downward pressure on market prices, but buyers aren’t sitting on a ton of inventory right now and will need to cover their needs sooner rather than later. We will have to see how things play out over the next week or so.
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