March 2025 Almond Market Update: 2024 Crop Nears Completion, 2025 Outlook Uncertain

In the second episode of the Almond Brief podcast, Harris Woolf Almonds’ Chase Higenbotham, Kevin Souza, and Drew Bond share timely insights on the current state of the California almond industry. The episode highlights developments in the 2024 almond crop, early expectations for the 2025 crop, and the market’s response to potential U.S. tariffs.

Here’s a summary of the key takeaways and market implications from the March 2025 update.

2024 Almond Crop Update: Receipts, Shipments & Carry-Out

As of March 2025, the 2024 almond crop harvest is nearing completion. Receipts currently stand at 2.682 billion pounds, slightly under the original 2.8 billion-pound estimate. Kevin Souza notes that while the final figure may reach 2.7 billion, “we’re not having the bumper crop” once anticipated.

Despite a smaller-than-expected crop, shipments and sales remain strong. The industry shipped approximately 215 million pounds in February—just slightly below the previous year, but still in line with market expectations. February sales were described as healthy and slightly stronger than anticipated, contributing to a “fluid” and “steady” market environment.

The projected carry-out is another encouraging indicator. If shipment trends continue at their current pace—averaging 226 million pounds per month—the industry is on track for a manageable carry-out of around 450 million pounds. A lower carry-out typically results in reduced supply heading into the next crop year, which may help support prices.

“If we can continue that through the rest of the year, we easily ship 2.7 billion pounds and get to that manageable carry-out level.” – Chase Higenbotham

2025 Almond Crop Outlook: Spotty Bloom and Early Nut Set

The bloom for the 2025 almond crop has ended, and the outlook is mixed. Drew Bond describes the bloom as “spotty across the state,” and the industry is now turning its focus to nut set monitoring. It’s still too early to make a firm prediction on crop size.

“It is way too early to put a number on it. You never know what’s going to happen—good, bad, or otherwise.” – Kevin Souza

Early industry expectations range between 2.5 and 2.7 billion pounds, suggesting the 2025 crop could be smaller than the current year. That, combined with a lean carry-out, could signal a tighter supply environment going forward. Despite the uncertainty, the presenters agree that the outlook remains “manageable”—a favorable sign for California almond prices.

Almond Market Reaction to Potential Tariffs

The possibility of new U.S. tariffs has added a layer of uncertainty to the market, prompting buyers to keep inventory lean and make short-term purchasing decisions.

“Buying habits [have] been hand to mouth and keeping it close due to the unknown tariffs that could or could not come…” – Kevin Souza

The Indian market, a key export destination, remains cautiously optimistic that no significant changes to trade policy will occur. Still, Harris Woolf Almonds stresses that the tariff situation is highly fluid and continues to evolve daily.

“This is a very fluid situation—it’s changing daily and by the hour—so we’re going to continue to monitor it…” – Chase Higenbotham

Despite the unpredictability, the fundamentals of almond supply and demand remain stable. Buyers still need to cover upcoming needs, and the current shipment pace suggests ongoing demand.

Final Thoughts: A Stable Almond Market Amid Uncertainty

The March 2025 almond market snapshot paints a picture of stability with an eye on caution. While the 2024 crop is slightly smaller than forecasted, steady shipments and strong sales have led to a manageable projected carry-out. The 2025 almond crop, though still in early stages, shows signs of being lighter, but not alarmingly so. The biggest variable right now is trade policy, with potential tariffs influencing short-term buyer behavior.

Growers, handlers, and buyers should stay tuned and remain flexible as the situation continues to evolve.