May 2022 Position Report

Year to date crop receipts now total 2,910,220,480 pounds, which is 6.17% below the 3,101,603,042 pounds received to date last May. As focus shifts to the 2022 crop, estimates have been between 2.8 and 2.9 billion pounds. The next crop update will come on July 8th when the NASS Objective Estimate is released.

Total shipments for the month were 257.55 million pounds, this is an increase of 17.4% when compared to last year’s 219.41 million pounds. Export shipments were 193.40 million pounds, which is up 29.4% from last year and a new export record for May. Domestic shipments were 64.14 million pounds, this is down 8.2% versus last May’s 69.89 million pounds. At the peak of the shipping/port congestion it seemed plausible to end the year with a carryout of 1.0 billion pounds. It still seems too early to think that our export problems are behind us, but if the industry continues to ship 250 million per month the final 2021 carryout will be roughly 800 million pounds.

New sales for the month were 116.8 million pounds compared to 102.9 million pounds sold at this time last year. Based on a crop estimate of 2.914 billion pounds, the year to date sold position is 80.8%; this time last year the industry was 87.0% sold.

The first look at 2022 crop sales were published this month. Year to date the total sale were 129 million pounds compared to 231 million pounds sold to date last year.

If we look at May’s numbers in a vacuum, they check all the boxes for a strong and positive report. However, we are also trying to chip away at a historic carry out figure and hoping the industry sold percentage surpasses a ten-year low. With export product now getting to its destinations, overseas warehouses are filling up with product and bringing down demand on the buying side. The combination of all of these factors is keeping prices depressed at the moment.