May 2025 Almond Position Report: Market Misses, Harvest Outlook & What’s Next

The May 2025 Almond Position Report brings a blend of steadiness and uncertainty. While crop receipts are meeting expectations and the industry remains on pace with its 10-year average for sales, May’s numbers also reflect concern—especially in domestic shipments and overall sales. In Episode 5 of The Almond Brief, Harris Woolf Almonds’ Chase Sigenbotham and Kevin Souza break down what’s happening across the almond market, what to expect from the upcoming crop forecast, and how growers are preparing for harvest just five weeks away.

Domestic Shipments Hit Yearly Low While Exports Pick Up Slack

Domestic shipments came in at just 51 million pounds, the lowest of the year. Kevin Souza noted this is particularly concerning since the domestic market is “our largest portion of the industry and important to our business.”

While overall shipments totaled 212 million pounds—slightly under expectations—export markets helped stabilize the total. “Luckily, the export market continues to pick up the slack,” Souza added.

Sales Miss the Mark: Industry Expectations Fall Short

May sales were a major disappointment. At 89 million pounds, they fell far below both last year’s May total (134 million) and this year’s expectation of 160 million. “We missed the mark on that one,” Kevin admitted.

Still, there’s a silver lining. The industry is 85% sold year-to-date, which matches the 10-year average. Previous strong sales created a buffer that softened the blow of a slower month.

Quiet Almond Market Driven by Tariffs and Buyer Behavior

Recent months have seen a quiet market, largely due to tariff uncertainty and resulting buyer behavior. When tariff threats loomed, especially in Europe, buyers rushed to secure almonds—driving prices to a peak.

After the panic buying, however, buyers stepped back, giving room for secondary markets to undercut prices by 5–10 cents. Many buyers are now holding off for further price drops, which has dragged market activity into a lull.

All Eyes on the 2025 Almond Objective Forecast

The upcoming USDA Objective Forecast is creating widespread anticipation. “Everybody just kind of sits back and wants to know what’s going to happen,” Chase said.

A Wide Gap in Expectations:

• Buyers expect a 2.8–2.9 billion pound crop

• Sellers believe it will be more in the 2.65–2.75 billion range

This disconnect is already causing pricing volatility. If the forecast confirms a larger crop, “we will see some downward pressure and that’s inevitable,” Kevin warned. Conversely, a lower forecast could lift market confidence and pricing.

Growers are collectively hoping for a number below 2.8 billion, as that would “help the industry” and “help pricing,” according to Chase.

2025 Harvest Preparations Underway Across Orchards

Harvest is about five weeks away, slated for late July or early August. Early signs of hullsplit are appearing, and growers are beginning pest control preparations.

Drew Bond, Grower Rep and Harvest Coordinator, shared insights from the field:

• Hullsplit Activity: Early signs on Nonpareil and Independence varieties—edges splitting, but not yet progressing to the center.

• Spray Rigs & Pest Control: Growers are applying miticides where mites are flaring up, aiming for better quality and premiums.

• Ant Bait: Treatments are being staged.

• Orchard Floor Prep: “A lot of ranches…already floated out… minimize any dirt deliveries.”

• Moisture Testing: Sampling is underway to gauge timing.

Harris Woolf Almonds Updates: Behind the Podcast

The Almond Brief podcast remains a grassroots effort. “This is filmed, produced, and edited by the sales team and grower team,” Chase shared. Despite a small production budget, the team continues to bring fresh insight every month.

Recently, the company hosted its board meetings and a grower appreciation luncheon at Harris Ranch Restaurant, reinforcing its commitment to transparency and community.

Final Thoughts: Resilience Amid Market Uncertainty

The almond industry is in a holding pattern. A weaker sales month and tariff aftershocks are challenging—but the bigger picture remains stable. The 10-year average pace holds, and the next few weeks will bring clarity through the USDA objective report and approaching harvest.

As Chase said, regardless of what the forecast shows, “the game plan doesn’t change. We’re still going to continue to sell the crop and market the crop,” with the goal of steady organic price growth.