May 2025 Position Report

Sales

New sales for the month of May were 88.9 million pounds, down compared to last year’s 134.2 million pounds and also less than the 192.5 million pounds reported last month. This puts the industry’s overall sold position at 84.3%, which is still in line with the 10-year industry average.

2025 crop sales were reported for the first time this month. Total sales were 65.7 million pounds, with 45.7 million pounds of export sales and 20 million pounds of domestic sales. At this point last year, the industry had sold 173.1 million pounds of new crop. May is typically a slow sales month, but the 2025 crop sales were lower than expected.

Market Summary

The 2024 crop year position reports have all been consistent up to this point. However, the May shipping report gave the industry a curveball it hasn’t seen in a while, with shipments and new sales coming in below expectations. The industry shipment forecast pre-report was in the range of 220 to 230 million pounds. The total shipments of 211 million pounds weren’t too far off, but still below what was expected. The lack of domestic shipments continue to be a concern, reporting the lowest shipment levels of the season. Fortunately export shipments continue to pick up the slack. If California can continue to ship near these levels, there is still a path to finish the season with a carryout in the realm of 500 million pounds.

More concerning than shipments were the new sales for the month of May. The reported 88.9 million pounds of monthly sales fell well short of expectation in the range of 160-200 million pounds. New sales for the 2025 crop are low as well, but less shocking as both buyers and sellers are still grappling with uncertainty into the fall. Limited sales have taken place due to the fact that buyers are looking for a $0.10-$0.15 discount to current crop prices, while sellers want to be at least at parity with the current crop.

The almond market ultimately came to a halt over the last two weeks causing prices to slip for the first time this season. A couple of factors led up to this. First, the market had a strong run of sales the previous month as buyers were accelerating orders with the threat of retaliatory tariffs on the horizon. Last month’s surge gave buyers enough short-term coverage to take a breather on new sales. Second, some market participants took advantage of the short-term lack of market liquidity and undercut pricing out of California. This exacerbated market friction and resulted in the recent price decline.

Despite the recent slowdown in sales, the industry is still at 85% sold on total supply, right in line with the 10-year average for May. We do anticipate buyers will step back into the market soon to cover what they can for the remainder of the 2024 crop, which will be required to smoothly transition into the 2025 crop.

We also expect new crop demand to pick up in the near future. Prices today are relatively more attractive to buyers and some will want to take coverage before the objective estimate is reported in early July. As always we will continue to keep a close eye on market dynamics.

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