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Apr. 2024 Position Report

May 21, 2024

The recent weeks brought the almond industry a few more reports to digest. The NASS Subjective Estimate was released on May 10th and forecast the 2024 crop at 3.0 billion pounds. This was followed by the April Position Report on May 14th. The position report delivered another strong month of sales and shipments. California is on track to get the 2023 carryout down to 450-500 million pounds.

The year-to-date 2023 crop receipts now total 2.44 billion pounds, which is 4.85% below the 2.56 billion pounds received to date last season. There were only 2 million pounds of new receipts in April. The 2023 total crop size still looks like it will land right around 2.45 billion pounds.

Total shipments for the month were 241.5 million pounds. This is an increase of 22.4% when compared to last year’s 197.3 million pounds. Export shipments came to 176.7 million pounds, which is up 25.8% from last year. Domestic shipments landed at 64.8 million pounds. This is up 14.1% versus last season’s 56.8 million pounds. The industry is on track to ship a little over 2.7 billion pounds this season. The strong shipments, low crop yield, and high inedible should get the carryout back down to the 450-500 million range.

New sales for the month were 218.6 million pounds compared to 114.7 million pounds sold at this time last year. While the current crop estimates are on the higher side of where California needs to be in terms of total supply, the consistency between the 2024 crop estimates have brought some stability to the market. With all the forecasts so close to each other, buyers and sellers don’t have to debate about which one is correct. This continued movement will help to keep driving down the carryout.

Overall, the position report was very strong and shows that as an industry we haven’t taken our foot off the gas. California is committed to getting the carryout as low as possible before the 2024 crop starts arriving in August.

The Subjective Estimate of 3.0 billion pounds wasn’t a number that would give market prices an instant bump, but it was consistent and will keep sales moving through the rest of the season. The only way to get rid of the excess supply is to continue selling and shipping product.


2024 Crop Estimates

Bountiful Ag – 2.88 billion pounds
Terra Nova Trading- 2.97 billion pounds
Wonderful- 2.94 billion pounds
USDA Subjective- 3.00 billion pounds
USDA Objective- TBD July 2024