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July 2021 Position Report

July 14, 2021

July 2021 Position Report

The July 2021 Position Report was released Thursday, August 12th. This gives us the final crop size for the 2020 season and final carryout.

The final 2020 crop receipts landed at 3,106,951,935 pounds, which is 21.78% larger than 2019’s total crop.

Total shipments for the month were 229.39 million pounds, this is an increase of 27.3% when compared to last year’s 180.13 million pounds. This is the new shipment record for July. Export shipments were 158.50 million pounds, which is up 41.5% from last year. Domestic shipments were 70.89 million pounds, this is an increase of 4.0% over last July’s 68.15 million pounds. Total shipments for the 2020 crop year landed at 2,896,130,000 billion pounds, this is up 22.16% when compared to 2,372,410,000 billion pounds for the 2019 crop. The final carryout is 596 million pounds, this is quite the accomplishment considering carryout estimates were hovering around 800 million pounds at the start of the season.

Going into the 2021 harvest we now have an estimated total supply to work with, the 596 million pound carryout and the 2.8 billion pound Objective Forecast gives us a total of 3.4 billion pounds. This is roughly 150 million pounds lower than 2020’s total supply. The smaller overall supply has given prices a huge bump over the last month, following the Objective Estimate, we have seen increase of $0.50 to $0.80 per pound depending on the size and variety. While these increases look good on paper the demand from buyers has been relatively low, except for inshell product. The strong July report and early feedback of deliveries coming in lighter than expected, have given the market another $0.10 per pound increase. Hopefully we will see some liquidity return to the market in the coming weeks as information on 2021 deliveries continue to trickle in.

As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to reach out to your Grower Representatives.