The July Position Report was released on Friday, August 11th. This report was the final one for the 2022 crop year. We now have the final delivery numbers, total shipments, and the carryout for 2022. All the numbers landed within industry expectations, but to be fair the expectations were on the lower side.
The year-to-date 2022 crop receipts totaled 2,571,123,853 pounds, which is 12.01% below the 2,922,001,402 pounds received last season. Now that 2022 is in the books, all the focus will be on the 2023 deliveries going forward. While many in the industry feel the 2.6 billion pound objective is too high, it's going to take 5-6 months of deliveries before we will know if the NASS forecast is right or wrong.
Current 2023 Crop Estimates
TNT- 2.29 billion lbs
Wonderful- 2.35 billion lbs
Bountiful- 2.66 billion lbs
NASS Subjective- 2.50 billion lbs
Nass Objective- 2.60 billion lbs
Total shipments for the month were 186.67 million pounds. This is an increase of 10.2% when compared to last year's 169.42 million pounds. Export shipments came to 130.14 million pounds, which is up 15.9% from last year. Domestic shipments landed at 56.52 million pounds. This is down 1.1% versus last season's 57.18 million pounds. Total shipments for the 2022 crop year were 2.565 billion pounds. This is a decrease of 2.63% when compared to 2021's total of 2.634 billion pounds. This leaves us with the second largest carryout in history at 792 million pounds. The record was set last year at 838 million pounds.
2022 crop sales for the month were 108.5 million pounds compared to 63.3 million pounds sold at this time last year. The year to date sold position for 2022 crop landed at 87.5%. This is slightly ahead of last year's 84.5% sold position. New crop commitments now total 205 million pounds. That makes new crop sales 31.4% lower than last season's 299 million pounds sold to date.
In the weeks leading up to the July report we saw prices fall $0.05 to $0.10 per pound in anticipation of low shipping numbers and another large carryout. Seeing as how the report didn't bring us any surprises, we should see the market stabilize as long as the industry gets into a steady rhythm of buying and selling. If we sit back and wait for confirmation that the crop is smaller than the 2.6 billion pound objective, we will have lost out on too many months of sales and will never be able to get the carryout back to a manageable level. Waiting to sell will only cause prices to fall further. Even if the actual crop size is closer to 2.3 billion pounds, we would still have roughly 3.1 billion pounds to market including the carryout. The industry has shipped an average of 2.6 billion pounds over the last two years. If consumption remains the same, that would leave us with a 2023 carryout of 500 million pounds. Which would be great if we had another 2.5-2.6 billion pound crop coming in 2024, but if we don't have any weather issues that impact the crop, 2024 could be close to 3.0 billion again. California is starting 2023 behind on sales and we do not have the luxury of waiting for something to happen. Steady sales and shipments are the only way to turn the market around.
