Dear HWA Growers,
It was a busy news day in the almond industry. We will start with the subjective estimate coming in at a projected 2020 crop of 3.0 billion pounds. This is a 17.6% increase over last year’s production of 2.55 billion pounds. The forecasted bearing acres for 2020 are 1,260,000. The forecasted yield for 2020 is 2,380 pounds per acre. The 3.0 billion pound number has been the monster under the industry’s bed for the last few years and until we get the USDA objective estimate on July 7th it looks like the perception of 3.0 billion pounds will be our reality.
The April 2020 Position Report was released this morning as well. Total shipments for the month were 181.19 million pounds, setting a new record for April and becoming the fifth month in a row to set a record for total shipments. This is up 2.4% from last year’s April shipment total of 177.01 million pounds. Export shipments were 103.50 million pounds, which is down 5.3% from last year. Domestic shipments came in at 77.70 million pounds and was up 14.8% over last April. Shipments continue to remain strong, but the industry was expecting this resulting in a somewhat neutral report.
The 2019 year-to-date crop receipts are now 2,533,961,209 pounds. This is an increase of 11.34% over this time last year.
The question of the day is how this industry news will impact the market price? Sadly, I only see the huge 2020 estimate continuing to drive prices down. The position report looked good, but all that anyone will be talking about over the next few weeks will be the 2020 crop size. One other intangible that we are up against is the long-term effects of the COVID-19 crisis. Retail almond sales have been surging in recent months, but food service has been understandably non-existent with all the restaurants and similar businesses shutdown. Only time will tell if things start to get back in balance as the world reopens.
On a side note, the Almond Board will be holding a CASP webinar next week on the 20th, for any growers that would like to attend. You can register at the link http://www.almonds.com/sites/default/files/content/attachments/MAY_IPM_CASP_Webinar.pdf.
If you have any questions please feel free to reach out to your Grower Representatives.